Parameters (Monte Carlo sampling ranges)
min
15%
max
25%
min
10%
max
20%
min
50%
max
100%
min
60%
max
80%
min
3%
max
8%
min
20%
max
35%
min
60%
max
70%
min
80%
max
90%
min
5%
max
15%
min
0%
max
5%
min
10%
max
20%
yrs
runs
Running Monte Carlo simulation...
0%
Final Employment (L)
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Demand Gap (D-Y)/Y
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Price Level
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--
Wage Share (W/Y)
L (Employment)
Employment Level (L)
Fraction of labor force employed. Starts at ~100% and falls as AI replaces jobs. The shaded bands show uncertainty across Monte Carlo runs.
Median drops from 100% → see results
Employment Level (L)
Fraction of labor force employed. Starts at ~100% and falls as AI replaces jobs. The shaded bands show uncertainty across Monte Carlo runs.
Fraction of labor force employed. Starts at ~100% and falls as AI replaces jobs. The shaded bands show uncertainty across Monte Carlo runs.
Median drops from 100% → see results
Demand Gap (D-Y)/Y
Demand Gap = (D - Y) / Y
When negative, aggregate demand is less than output — unsold goods, recession pressure. This is the paper's core concern: AI increases Y but shrinks W, so D falls.
Gap widens to see results
Demand Gap = (D - Y) / Y
When negative, aggregate demand is less than output — unsold goods, recession pressure. This is the paper's core concern: AI increases Y but shrinks W, so D falls.
When negative, aggregate demand is less than output — unsold goods, recession pressure. This is the paper's core concern: AI increases Y but shrinks W, so D falls.
Gap widens to see results
AI Adoption
AI Adoption Rate
Fraction of economy using AI. Follows S-curve: slow start, rapid middle growth, then saturation. Drives all other changes.
Grows from ~15% → see results
AI Adoption Rate
Fraction of economy using AI. Follows S-curve: slow start, rapid middle growth, then saturation. Drives all other changes.
Fraction of economy using AI. Follows S-curve: slow start, rapid middle growth, then saturation. Drives all other changes.
Grows from ~15% → see results
Y (Output)
Total Output (Y = A·Lβ)
GDP equivalent. Even as employment falls, output can rise due to AI productivity gains (A↑). This creates the paradox: more goods, fewer buyers.
Output changes: see results
Total Output (Y = A·Lβ)
GDP equivalent. Even as employment falls, output can rise due to AI productivity gains (A↑). This creates the paradox: more goods, fewer buyers.
GDP equivalent. Even as employment falls, output can rise due to AI productivity gains (A↑). This creates the paradox: more goods, fewer buyers.
Output changes: see results
Price Level (Deflation)
Price Level
When demand < supply, prices fall (deflation). Persistent deflation signals economic trouble: falling profits, debt burden rises, investment drops.
Price falls to: see results
Price Level
When demand < supply, prices fall (deflation). Persistent deflation signals economic trouble: falling profits, debt burden rises, investment drops.
When demand < supply, prices fall (deflation). Persistent deflation signals economic trouble: falling profits, debt burden rises, investment drops.
Price falls to: see results
Wage Share (W/Y)
Wage Share = W / Y
Labor's share of total output. As AI replaces workers, wages (W) fall faster than output (Y), so wage share drops. Capital captures more of the pie.
Wage Share = W / Y
Labor's share of total output. As AI replaces workers, wages (W) fall faster than output (Y), so wage share drops. Capital captures more of the pie.
Labor's share of total output. As AI replaces workers, wages (W) fall faster than output (Y), so wage share drops. Capital captures more of the pie.
Final Employment Distribution
Employment at End of Simulation
Histogram of final employment across all Monte Carlo runs. Shows the range of possible outcomes given parameter uncertainty.
Distribution of outcomes after 30 years
Employment at End of Simulation
Histogram of final employment across all Monte Carlo runs. Shows the range of possible outcomes given parameter uncertainty.
Histogram of final employment across all Monte Carlo runs. Shows the range of possible outcomes given parameter uncertainty.
Distribution of outcomes after 30 years
Final Demand Gap Distribution
Demand Gap at End of Simulation
Histogram of final demand gaps. More negative = worse demand shortfall. Shows probability of different crisis severities.
Distribution of demand gaps after 30 years
Demand Gap at End of Simulation
Histogram of final demand gaps. More negative = worse demand shortfall. Shows probability of different crisis severities.
Histogram of final demand gaps. More negative = worse demand shortfall. Shows probability of different crisis severities.
Distribution of demand gaps after 30 years
Ready to Simulate
Monte Carlo simulation based on paper equations. Adjust parameters above and click Run.
Y = A·Lβ — output (productivity × labor)
W = w·L — wage income
Π = Y - W — profits
D = c(W + θΠ + T) — aggregate demand
L = 1 - (subst - creation)·AI — labor-saving